In the face of geopolitical tensions, rising global policy rates, and volatile commodity prices, Indian equities emerged as outperformers in the global landscape throughout calendar year 2023, particularly in the mid and large-cap space.
ICICI Direct projects a robust outlook for December 2024, setting Nifty’s target at 25,000 and Sensex’s target at 83,250, suggesting a 15% potential upside from the current index levels.
India stands in a favorable position relative to its global peers, enjoying macroeconomic stability and promising corporate earnings. Recent Nifty earnings growth at a 22% CAGR over FY20-23, and a projected CAGR of 16.3% over FY23-26E, underscore this positive sentiment.
ICICI Direct’s top stock picks for 2024 include UGRO Capital, SBI Cards, NMDC, Uno Minda, Greenply Industries, Birla Corporation, and Grindwell Norton.
Indian indices, hitting fresh life highs, maintained their status as the best-performing market with substantial foreign inflows, amounting to nearly $17 billion in the current calendar year. In contrast, other emerging markets experienced nominal flows. The report notes that JP Morgan’s Bond index inclusion alone could trigger FPI inflows of $25 billion or Rs 2 trillion into the Indian debt market.
Additionally, the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index (Global Agg) is likely to incorporate Indian bonds, potentially attracting $15-20 billion with its estimated AUM of $2.5 trillion. These inflows, coupled with the ongoing global rate-cut cycle, are expected to drive bond yields lower, reducing the cost of funds for Indian corporates.
Key sectors poised for growth in 2024, according to ICICI Direct, include
Cement: Expecting healthy utilizations amid expanding capacity
Steel: Anticipating a doubling of capacity with a focus on green initiatives
Auto: Sales Strengthening premiumization trend
Banks: Regaining strong footing
Real Estate: Experiencing a decadal revival
However, the report highlights potential risks for CY24, including a global growth slowdown, escalated geopolitical tensions, and any negative surprises related to a resurgence of Covid. The year 2024 is anticipated to witness a sharp slowdown in major economies like the U.S. and China, posing risks to the otherwise resilient domestic economy, especially on the exports front.
